NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8154ed1e7bd868ca269ef54155b7a7fbd327d0cc41592d4062bcdac2299e2de9

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,043 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Under	53c	30,653$16,296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,357.11	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	47c	7,498$3,524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,524.06	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	7,329$3,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,468.54	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Over	50c	4,987$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Over	53c	4,374$2,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,317.99	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x247c…ad22backed Under	47c	4,028$1,893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,134.66	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	56c	3,589$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	1,350$727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.68	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Over	46c	1,118$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.14	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Over	54c	1,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	71	32.4%23 W · 48 L	-10.6wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Over	47c	851.06$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	188	42.6%80 W · 108 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under	52c	685.5$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.04	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	47c	638$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.14	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	53c	592.23$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.35	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Over	47c	563.83$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	213	55.9%119 W · 94 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	47c	425.53$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	51c	392$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.08	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	386.52$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.32	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…ee8dbacked Under	48c	379.17$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.17	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	47c	350$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.5	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	54c	316.66$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.65	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Over	50c	308.48$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.24	383	47%180 W · 203 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x964c…0a17backed Over	54c	277.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Over	56c	252.27$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.27	173	41%71 W · 102 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	47c	234.04$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79f…e8fbbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	69c	158.56$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.91	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a28…c2e1backed Over	54c	150$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.0wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5373…e46bbacked Over	37c	138.95$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.41	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	53c	134$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.02	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Over	53c	132.08$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25fd…6219backed Over	54c	129$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	115$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.95	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Under	47c	111$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.83	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	48c	106.25$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.25	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	49c	105$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.55	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb27…18d2backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…272cbacked Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Under	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	184	53.3%98 W · 86 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	98.05$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.95	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	90.81$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.13	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc69…78b3backed Over	50c	90$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	52c	89.43$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.35	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Over	52c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b7…704ebacked Over	47c	78.04$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.98	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.24per pick	47cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Over	55c	72.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6053…adf5backed Under	47c	67$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Over	45c	66.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	25c	63.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Over	46c	62$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.52	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf3…6192backed Under	47c	62$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Under	75c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	76c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under	50c	59$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Under	58c	57.25$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Under	54c	55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x190b…2f3abacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c2…8efabacked Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…1f6bbacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	47c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	46c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	48c	33.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11ff…39a4backed Over	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Over	51c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x891e…ea69backed Over	53c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Under	67c	26.12$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e75…e81dbacked Under	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	52c	24.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711d…fe4bbacked Over	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19fe…dbd8backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	51c	19.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	117	41.9%49 W · 68 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	52c	19.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event