TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,139,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,343,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,139,062 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Clippers52c199,995$103,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,997.658333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7284…c582backed Grizzlies30c165,912$49,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,138.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+72.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Clippers70c107,934$75,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,553.9315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies59c106,204$62,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,048.081,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Clippers17c40,201$6,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,98321944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Clippers70c40,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Clippers71c35,244$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Grizzlies30c30,730$9,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,511.1166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers70c30,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Clippers70c30,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.931,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies46c24,039$11,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,9812,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies59c21,284$12,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,755.55,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Grizzlies47c19,900$9,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,546.9470147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies29c16,266$4,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,548.512,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Grizzlies29c15,484$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,010.9881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Clippers1c14,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14064517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Clippers70c12,849$9,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,009.1914549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Clippers1c9,351$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.511,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Grizzlies34c8,239$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.911,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Clippers73c8,010$5,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,836.021,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies59c7,949$4,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Grizzlies19c6,225$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.51,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2366…6fe9backed Clippers25c6,180$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.393043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grizzlies31c5,050$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,484.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Grizzlies14c4,908$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,233.7614025%35 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Clippers70c4,900$3,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.111,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Grizzlies29c4,876$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.9966250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies25c4,870$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,632.071,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies30c4,335$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies33c4,214$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies29c3,933$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.743,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Grizzlies30c3,779$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Grizzlies25c3,695$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.3966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Grizzlies20c3,572$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.648132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies30c3,548$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Grizzlies32c3,419$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.1536943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Grizzlies30c3,386$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.5248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Grizzlies30c3,327$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.3737930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Clippers7c3,111$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Clippers76c3,057$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.3541954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Clippers37c3,000$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Grizzlies30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10035547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Grizzlies30c2,899$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.510547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Clippers70c2,787$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.747259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Grizzlies22c2,696$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.637731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Grizzlies31c2,670$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.4734855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Grizzlies15c2,483$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.948046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Clippers69c2,445$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.2389050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Grizzlies30c2,438$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.4135651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Grizzlies44c2,372$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.2324038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Grizzlies35c2,241$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.2944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Grizzlies30c2,189$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.369852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Clippers77c2,159$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.110652.8%56 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Clippers33c2,122$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69712238.5%47 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Grizzlies14c2,070$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.595541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Grizzlies29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies30c1,895$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.413,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Clippers32c1,866$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60027041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Clippers68c1,700$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1569256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Clippers70c1,568$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1008951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Clippers13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19522243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Clippers71c1,500$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0656448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies29c1,448$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.411,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Grizzlies31c1,445$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.983540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Grizzlies24c1,359$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.051,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Grizzlies19c1,351$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.7962546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Clippers1c1,332$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fb…0d1abacked Clippers44c1,316$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Grizzlies30c1,300$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91025554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Clippers49c1,215$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60016943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Grizzlies34c1,214$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Grizzlies42c1,187$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.7231044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Grizzlies31c1,177$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.1394951.3%487 W · 462 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Grizzlies29c1,170$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.5695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Clippers17c1,144$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009839.8%39 W · 59 L-12.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Clippers77c1,088$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Grizzlies22c1,018$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.7915336.6%56 W · 97 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Clippers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Clippers17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704623.9%11 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Grizzlies30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Grizzlies30c1,000$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.3175347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Grizzlies30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70056945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Grizzlies29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9911649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Clippers67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9929858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Clippers70c999.98$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9943543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies30c999.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.9873649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Grizzlies29c996.78$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.716636.4%24 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Grizzlies71c915.53$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.5318556.8%105 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies63c903.16$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies30c900$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6302,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Grizzlies28c892.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.8885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Clippers71c878.87$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62419144.5%85 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0801…35cbbacked Clippers71c858.37$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.441723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-39.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Grizzlies46c832.41$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.14656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Clippers79c821.09$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.5719135.6%68 W · 123 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Grizzlies25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Grizzlies13c769.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.231,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Clippers52c761.05$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.556348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Clippers49c744$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.952,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.