TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$632,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$598,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 634 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Raptors52c50,000$25,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,80038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets58c38,552$22,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,102.295,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Raptors15c25,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Hornets28c25,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets41c24,073$9,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,248.264,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Raptors44c22,728$9,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,95821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors7c21,220$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.861,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets59c17,880$10,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,325.941,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hornets42c15,047$6,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,794.6926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Raptors72c13,889$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hornets27c12,821$3,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,359.6572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x941f…8f75backed Hornets26c11,888$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,797.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+107.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raptors52c11,556$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3586…12edbacked Raptors74c10,788$7,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,983.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Raptors72c10,001$7,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2018863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Raptors73c10,000$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,30018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hornets28c10,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.8731445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Hornets62c9,674$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,676.2852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc016…3c89backed Raptors74c9,357$6,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,924.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Hornets25c9,260$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,975.3435547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9317…75d9backed Hornets5c8,400$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9801100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Raptors67c8,221$5,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,501.6573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…efecbacked Raptors68c8,000$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4401163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd173…1a38backed Hornets26c7,920$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,860.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…0a9bbacked Hornets26c7,910$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,853.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d7…924dbacked Raptors74c7,580$5,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,609.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets28c7,143$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,142.821,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Hornets24c6,936$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,238.974223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5a91…e4a6backed Hornets28c6,862$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+91.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets35c6,842$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.683,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors32c6,734$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.28,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Hornets28c6,623$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,768.321822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Raptors44c6,552$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9006943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors75c5,965$4,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,481.952,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Hornets26c5,770$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.4644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors73c5,569$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.014,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors59c5,555$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,277.4376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets28c5,466$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Raptors72c4,980$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.634942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hornets40c4,571$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.3785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Hornets27c4,450$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,26722637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors59c4,182$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.341,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Hornets25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00010547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Hornets29c3,917$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.2491050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Hornets28c3,860$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.9915443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Hornets43c3,538$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.0748046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Hornets53c3,502$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.0844654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Hornets28c3,333$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.7628850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets25c3,002$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.371,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…1e8bbacked Hornets24c3,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.911353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors47c2,877$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.142,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets25c2,446$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.942,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets66c2,400$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82852844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hornets50c2,297$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.951,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Raptors75c2,274$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.6817658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Raptors75c2,261$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.1818452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Hornets24c2,052$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.4714356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors75c2,002$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.92,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Hornets29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac0…a4f8backed Raptors1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202733.3%9 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde5d…f58bbacked Hornets68c1,954$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Raptors74c1,951$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.7428063.9%179 W · 101 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Hornets29c1,940$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.186435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Raptors63c1,815$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.3416750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f1…c192backed Raptors56c1,814$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-83.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Raptors76c1,788$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Raptors74c1,725$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.869851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Raptors39c1,677$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65012238.5%47 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Raptors73c1,653$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20035362.6%221 W · 132 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets53c1,631$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.581,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Raptors72c1,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08019441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Raptors58c1,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.9956945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hornets49c1,463$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.81,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets29c1,376$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.681,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Raptors73c1,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hornets27c1,368$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.3695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Raptors1c1,332$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Raptors54c1,310$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.559140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Raptors72c1,306$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9402657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hornets36c1,219$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.415,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a8…3d3fbacked Hornets29c1,152$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.215139.2%20 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+63.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hornets27c1,131$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.5872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Hornets29c1,111$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.817640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Hornets27c1,105$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.6592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Hornets23c1,100$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8521,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Hornets64c1,039$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.4917153.8%92 W · 79 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9c7fbacked Raptors24c1,004$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Raptors1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Hornets26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74043543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b45…41e3backed Raptors73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7302236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Raptors73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73031538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb800…e43abacked Hornets26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7405837.9%22 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Hornets27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73025642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Raptors72c972.22$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hornets46c966.12$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.821,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hornets59c960$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.41,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Raptors34c951.46$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8952643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Hornets28c932.14$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.148438.1%32 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b38…6f5abacked Raptors74c878.38$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e5…5043backed Hornets27c870.37$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.37683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick34cpaid+228.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.