NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7740d1f3d756967c5985db851003572bb538121add2a79795f53893c635816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b1f…c37dbacked Raptors | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…3114backed Hornets | 56c | 3,480$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Hornets | 53c | 2,079$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.33 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Hornets | 55c | 1,826$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.76 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Raptors | 44c | 1,727$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Raptors | 47c | 1,220$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.63 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Raptors | 46c | 994$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.24 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 56c | 907.97$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Hornets | 51c | 804$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 49c | 577$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 47c | 535.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Hornets | 53c | 489.09$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Raptors | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Raptors | 43c | 372.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…6351backed Raptors | 47c | 369$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…6bbebacked Hornets | 57c | 369$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 47c | 244.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Raptors | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Hornets | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Raptors | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Hornets | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Raptors | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 47c | 75.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Hornets | 50c | 63.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Hornets | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Hornets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 42c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Hornets | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Raptors | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Hornets | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Hornets | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- Hornets vs. RaptorsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.