NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x219b5087c0f75bc28dbfe97fcf5e53a0377d772096eca96aa12dc392bb2a2c55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Raptors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Hornets | 56c | 13,357$7,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,877.12 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 46c | 12,160$5,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,550.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets | 55c | 8,236$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,706.15 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Raptors | 49c | 6,299$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Hornets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…e5b3backed Raptors | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…d7d5backed Raptors | 48c | 3,900$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Hornets | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Hornets | 49c | 3,362$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.77 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Raptors | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…88b2backed Hornets | 52c | 3,109$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 44c | 3,047$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Raptors | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Raptors | 45c | 1,617$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.65 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Raptors | 50c | 1,342$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Raptors | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Raptors | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…81aabacked Hornets | 52c | 961.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Raptors | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 44c | 446.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Raptors | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 53c | 433.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 50c | 268.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Raptors | 47c | 254.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Raptors | 49c | 204.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 46c | 147.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hornets | 53c | 144.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Hornets | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Raptors | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Raptors | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Hornets | 50c | 100.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Raptors | 46c | 90.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Raptors | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Raptors | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Hornets | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…cc0fbacked Raptors | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 47c | 44.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Raptors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…00edbacked Hornets | 54c | 30.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Hornets | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Raptors | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Raptors | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Raptors | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)this page
- Hornets vs. RaptorsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.