TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Musetti
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,102,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Musetti13c51,134$6,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,787.1876140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Musetti14c46,919$6,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,595.672,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti8c33,522$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.198,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Musetti14c31,431$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,400.41942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c6…c26dbacked Musetti8c27,082$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b89…0d9cbacked Musetti10c26,374$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.894254.8%23 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Musetti7c21,081$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.9225257.9%146 W · 106 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd070…a978backed Musetti8c18,666$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+338.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c73…257cbacked Musetti14c16,971$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Musetti3c15,986$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Musetti11c15,622$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.854843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Musetti8c14,809$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.0711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Musetti4c13,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5708023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Musetti13c12,639$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.0622037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Musetti14c11,661$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.591,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Musetti8c11,057$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.423818.4%7 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Musetti14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4008429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Musetti13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3008530.6%26 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Musetti9c8,324$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.382,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Musetti13c8,017$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.514930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Musetti13c8,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9911037.3%41 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Musetti17c7,804$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.662347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Musetti14c7,387$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.245253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Musetti10c6,481$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6616530.8%20 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Musetti12c6,277$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.057,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Musetti13c5,821$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.6752844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Musetti5c5,709$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.623737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ff…0ba5backed Musetti13c5,703$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Musetti0c5,667$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Musetti4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Musetti13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9922629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Musetti13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Musetti5c4,700$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21811859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Musetti15c4,233$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6351020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+84.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Musetti13c4,211$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.241,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Musetti17c4,185$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.275064%32 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Musetti15c4,073$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6164540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Musetti13c4,068$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.3155143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Musetti11c4,063$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.32,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Musetti5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003354.5%18 W · 15 L+7.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+65.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Musetti12c3,974$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8417823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Musetti14c3,585$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005350.9%27 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d81…5d42backed Musetti14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Musetti10c3,190$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.132,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Musetti13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39022344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Musetti13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.993429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…2ababacked Musetti14c2,964$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Musetti2c2,719$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.55365.6%2 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Musetti19c2,653$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Musetti11c2,448$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e4…61c8backed Musetti12c2,402$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Musetti13c2,300$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti14c2,279$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3191,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaadb…9b41backed Musetti13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f84…8d1dbacked Musetti13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Musetti10c1,971$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7410456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Musetti3c1,900$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+261.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Musetti14c1,841$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Musetti8c1,782$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x628e…a488backed Musetti14c1,736$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2431369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Musetti6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8d…b575backed Musetti7c1,648$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204820.8%10 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b32…3f5fbacked Musetti13c1,590$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.73710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Musetti9c1,547$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b04…6549backed Musetti13c1,517$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004630.4%14 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Musetti13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cc…f511backed Musetti13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ad…80f6backed Musetti15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Musetti14c1,164$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.525446.5%118 W · 136 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Musetti16c1,155$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.93262.5%20 W · 12 L+6.9wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+37.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Musetti15c1,123$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Musetti11c1,051$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.672,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Musetti12c1,006$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.561,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Musetti14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407037.1%26 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Musetti14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Musetti13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Musetti13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13016146.6%75 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3e…1726backed Musetti5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked Musetti13c999.94$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Musetti12c969.79$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.37837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaef6…6c23backed Musetti14c950$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked Musetti14c892.86$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Musetti4c855.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Musetti13c817.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2530339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Musetti13c805$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…51a0backed Musetti14c737.82$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Musetti13c718.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9430645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Musetti14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Musetti14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006749.3%33 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Musetti14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa77f…f2e8backed Musetti14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377b…0446backed Musetti14c692.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971010%1 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti11c682$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0262742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad2…6fe3backed Musetti9c680$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Musetti12c663.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.616046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Musetti7c617.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.553727%10 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Musetti12c593.42$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8530639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Musetti17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Musetti17c579.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Musetti9c522.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.883030%9 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.