Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc62e282c8fbde01d06c037db5f66af09af111fccc067864c3b64d36a9bde1e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Musetti | 24c | 2,862$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 2,292$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.96 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Alcaraz | 79c | 2,200$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Musetti | 25c | 1,684$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.92 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Musetti | 13c | 1,456$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.54 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Musetti | 19c | 1,316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Musetti | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Musetti | 6c | 216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…a1b5backed Alcaraz | 77c | 134.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alcaraz | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alcaraz | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked Alcaraz | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Musetti | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16dc…30adbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 46.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Musettithis page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo MusettiAlcaraz won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.