Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b8b63afb09a06d0085ecb20894e16c706b43c545af6aed49a7bfe23eb5adac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 2,600$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 3c | 1,495$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Over 2.5 | 23c | 1,166$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.11 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 991.21$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…0446backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 615.89$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Over 2.5 | 19c | 570$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 466.32$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over 2.5 | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 330.64$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca13…1477backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 116.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…8e83backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over 2.5 | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…ed5bbacked Over 2.5 | 29c | 71.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under 2.5 | 74c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…1ceebacked Over 2.5 | 30c | 39.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…5aacbacked Under 2.5 | 68c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb560…60d6backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Under 2.5 | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under 2.5 | 70c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo MusettiAlcaraz won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MusettiAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.