Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56738bcc1df303537beb648ad5b60cdfb784f6cb30ffdbd04d679aa8821b1966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 12,369$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 0c | 7,333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 2c | 4,201$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed No | 49c | 2,168$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed No | 2c | 1,909$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 4c | 941.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed No | 52c | 900$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 872.55$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 42c | 855.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.67 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 801.19$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 31c | 500$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 53c | 473.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 50c | 395.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 53c | 372.07$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 43c | 333.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…ad45backed No | 69c | 298.27$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 52c | 255.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 57c | 241.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 205.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked No | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 199.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…e87cbacked Yes | 62c | 185.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 47c | 177.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 47c | 144.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 29c | 127.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 56c | 109$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 47c | 107.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 53c | 106.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Yes | 60c | 97.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 64c | 93.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed No | 55c | 91.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 39c | 89.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…8feabacked Yes | 47c | 87.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed No | 56c | 78.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed No | 64c | 78.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 67.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…85bfbacked Yes | 50c | 62.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…80d3backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 66c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 43c | 57.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 47c | 54.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked No | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 38c | 47.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 50c | 44.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 37.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 66c | 37.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 49c | 32.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 49c | 30.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…7289backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 43c | 27.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 53c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…f0ebbacked Yes | 62c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or higher on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.