Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa066ce23a7a5d52949548d675e111d403adacb696058da3005fc8e36aa289c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 1c | 20,263$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 6c | 4,996$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.77 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 928.98$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 50c | 756.71$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.36 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 49c | 567.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.91 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 34c | 521.1$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 465$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 44c | 451.34$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Yes | 56c | 450.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 439.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 58c | 342.01$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.63 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed No | 58c | 304.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 47c | 202.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 47c | 201.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 194.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…85bfbacked Yes | 52c | 194.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 175.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 51c | 174$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 48c | 172.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 35c | 171.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 47c | 152.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…f5e8backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 69c | 144.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked No | 62c | 141.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 65c | 139.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 134.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes | 45c | 132.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 45c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 113.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 107.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 45c | 93.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 86.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 61c | 79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…80d3backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…f0ebbacked Yes | 38c | 58.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Yes | 38c | 53.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 58c | 51.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea8…046ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 43c | 41.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 33c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…bed9backed Yes | 40c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 41c | 29.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4798backed Yes | 69c | 29.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…1508backed Yes | 65c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or higher on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.