Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe337fac56cd72c1320beb0b4809e4976b46c9aae456e1f40dfeb76694ce95a2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 68c | 13,886$9,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 61c | 13,362$8,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed No | 32c | 10,619$3,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 1c | 7,791$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…cc17backed Yes | 77c | 7,219$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 69c | 5,934$4,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 69c | 5,300$3,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…1a64backed Yes | 69c | 5,276$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…e890backed Yes | 70c | 5,140$3,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 58c | 5,032$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 4c | 4,920$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d6b3backed Yes | 71c | 4,153$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked No | 31c | 4,133$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…beadbacked No | 31c | 3,760$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…9504backed Yes | 70c | 3,654$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…6ee4backed Yes | 69c | 2,918$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked No | 31c | 2,558$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 67c | 2,509$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c3…dacdbacked No | 29c | 2,473$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 53c | 2,462$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…8c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 2,457$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 17c | 2,410$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 45c | 2,314$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 1c | 2,043$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 28c | 1,905$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 54c | 1,685$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.85 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 54c | 1,636$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 68c | 1,610$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 69c | 1,455$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 65c | 1,408$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.88 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…1b0fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,177$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…c6d3backed Yes | 54c | 1,119$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 31c | 1,086$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.22 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…5edfbacked Yes | 61c | 1,060$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 45c | 1,047$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…3b99backed Yes | 69c | 1,046$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 70c | 1,010$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…bbc3backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 54c | 999$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.54 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc447…f819backed Yes | 57c | 878.92$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 49c | 855.95$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 54c | 840$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 55c | 783.81$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 75c | 777.31$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…f5f7backed Yes | 68c | 765.17$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 764.67$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 51c | 734.68$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed No | 45c | 725.71$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 40c | 674.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 44c | 640.49$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 57c | 612.28$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 72c | 600$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…ddc5backed Yes | 69c | 600$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 70c | 596.43$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 61c | 573.92$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ed09backed Yes | 72c | 560.56$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 50c | 551.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…64f9backed Yes | 63c | 550$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…5d3dbacked Yes | 57c | 525.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 62c | 516.98$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 30c | 511.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…4a81backed Yes | 54c | 490$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 44c | 472$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 29c | 460.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed Yes | 56c | 460$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…7b4dbacked Yes | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…53fcbacked Yes | 59c | 424$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 57c | 410.83$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 54c | 406.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 57c | 399.91$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 51c | 393.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…2c30backed Yes | 69c | 383.16$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…4b51backed Yes | 52c | 381.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…981bbacked No | 51c | 380.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa788…c3b0backed Yes | 51c | 380$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4cf3backed Yes | 58c | 379.31$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 72c | 375$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Yes | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 70c | 355$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…6834backed No | 37c | 325.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 61c | 299.93$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 36c | 282.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…9052backed Yes | 67c | 272.18$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…a50ebacked Yes | 56c | 271.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 53c | 263.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 78c | 249.81$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…0bc0backed Yes | 70c | 242.81$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 75c | 241.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…47e9backed Yes | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 62c | 230.09$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 62c | 230$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 229.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…362dbacked Yes | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.