Chess · resolved market
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dfc5226c22e3c631b0ecead60fcd183ce111096f785e621887a228905fab7c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 0c | 15,738$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 5c | 14,151$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.17 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…aed3backed Yes | 0c | 13,019$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 0c | 5,389$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 4c | 4,217$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 3,595$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,318$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,096$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 5c | 2,207$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…46b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,913$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…1077backed Yes | 4c | 1,835$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…81e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 1,510$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 5c | 1,290$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 3c | 997.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 2c | 952.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c0…42a5backed Yes | 6c | 831.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Yes | 4c | 809.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…84c7backed Yes | 3c | 766.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 6c | 673$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…8984backed Yes | 5c | 460.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded1…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 9c | 284.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b53…d530backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…05febacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the Speed Chess Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.