Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec21462ef58f792b5c1ff07bfdc66401b631c6fb42562ccceb2de279f0e73788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,773,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,488,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,773,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,689 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82a…5de9backed Yes | 3c | 379,400$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…8c8bbacked Yes | 37c | 240,814$90,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,174.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 220,124$11,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,458.33 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 4c | 180,365$6,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,490.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…022fbacked Yes | 5c | 165,668$8,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,755.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 7c | 141,486$9,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,562.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e81…a854backed Yes | 39c | 121,078$46,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,776.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 119,007$2,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.42 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf741…091ebacked Yes | 3c | 110,199$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…0eb1backed Yes | 6c | 93,045$6,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,025.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 40c | 81,785$32,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,793.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 18c | 81,280$14,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,620.83 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…c46fbacked Yes | 6c | 73,823$4,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 68,785$8,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,173.11 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 3c | 67,723$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.59 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 13c | 67,014$8,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,465.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 65,547$5,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,724.91 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 60c | 61,314$37,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,308.25 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…ce86backed Yes | 9c | 58,000$5,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,455 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 61c | 55,903$33,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,025.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 21c | 50,699$10,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,537.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…23b2backed Yes | 1c | 48,840$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Yes | 8c | 47,192$3,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…7434backed Yes | 52c | 46,907$24,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,210.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 21c | 46,264$9,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,647.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 6c | 46,160$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 7c | 45,654$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 66c | 45,152$29,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,247.48 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes | 1c | 43,776$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 43,765$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.92 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 11c | 43,492$4,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,944.43 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes | 1c | 40,239$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Yes | 2c | 38,024$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Yes | 7c | 37,208$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…b501backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed Yes | 22c | 34,574$7,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,442.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 1c | 33,547$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.11 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes | 1c | 33,029$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…e93dbacked Yes | 1c | 32,147$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 7c | 31,160$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes | 5c | 31,099$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…16aebacked Yes | 13c | 30,735$3,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,918.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1394…91f5backed Yes | 40c | 30,214$12,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,085.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 15c | 30,156$4,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 8c | 30,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda80…9b45backed Yes | 14c | 28,982$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 50c | 28,764$14,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,390.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 51c | 28,480$14,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,902.19 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…1aefbacked Yes | 16c | 28,208$4,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,481.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed No | 68c | 28,162$19,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,883.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 60c | 26,548$15,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,706.68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 3c | 25,190$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 13c | 24,841$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…05dcbacked Yes | 4c | 24,641$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 24,371$18,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,417.7 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…cf87backed Yes | 1c | 23,821$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 56c | 23,609$13,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,402.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 6c | 23,301$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…4f14backed Yes | 8c | 23,196$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 10c | 23,000$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…e60bbacked Yes | 14c | 22,698$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 53c | 21,943$11,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,313.37 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a05…4c41backed Yes | 1c | 21,910$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…1a89backed Yes | 1c | 21,885$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 79c | 21,649$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,648.72 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 67c | 21,223$14,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,088.08 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…e862backed Yes | 5c | 21,186$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…1700backed Yes | 1c | 21,043$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4a…6325backed Yes | 5c | 20,938$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes | 22c | 20,929$4,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,544.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2257…31adbacked Yes | 2c | 20,360$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…614cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,259$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…320fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +257.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 18c | 19,619$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,611.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa010…2f9abacked Yes | 24c | 18,481$4,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,495.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…248fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,964$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…19b9backed Yes | 37c | 17,928$6,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,614.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 10c | 17,700$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4870…20cbbacked Yes | 7c | 17,147$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…c93abacked Yes | 3c | 16,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…b29fbacked Yes | 3c | 16,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…3d3ebacked Yes | 3c | 16,507$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0d…2746backed Yes | 2c | 16,320$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 10c | 16,072$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…b399backed Yes | 19c | 15,917$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…6130backed Yes | 13c | 15,912$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…93a1backed Yes | 24c | 15,860$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Yes | 13c | 15,646$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 52c | 15,590$8,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,482.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…f933backed Yes | 58c | 15,544$9,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,042.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…354dbacked Yes | 39c | 15,390$6,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,058.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,237$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 24c | 15,177$3,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,712.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 28c | 15,155$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,188.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,046$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…691ebacked Yes | 10c | 15,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 22c | 14,907$3,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,352.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…77f1backed Yes | 40c | 14,901$5,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 20c | 14,861$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.