Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e72aedfdb18839ca6532e2dbc95a89ecb93247298f1953d1d4c02e7889b1f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,567,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,411,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,567,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 0c | 253,538$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.17 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 1c | 32,112$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 0c | 29,990$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 28,279$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 0c | 22,320$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 3c | 20,783$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…d208backed Yes | 5c | 20,001$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 19,693$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…dffdbacked Yes | 5c | 18,692$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 18,133$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes | 6c | 16,478$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed Yes | 0c | 13,232$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,749$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…bc1cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61c…f19cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,537$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 4c | 11,140$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.03 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 10,499$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.04 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 11c | 8,781$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…7974backed Yes | 2c | 8,737$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…ca85backed Yes | 1c | 7,819$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,557$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,351$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…766bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,998$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e0…6814backed Yes | 5c | 6,596$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 1c | 6,080$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…33efbacked Yes | 9c | 6,048$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 1c | 5,800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c7bfbacked Yes | 11c | 5,690$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…c705backed Yes | 7c | 5,583$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 5,474$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.9 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…45efbacked Yes | 7c | 5,186$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 22c | 5,103$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 18c | 5,084$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 5c | 5,036$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…2d41backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 4c | 4,748$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 3c | 4,367$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…c1a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,295$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…9e08backed Yes | 0c | 4,195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…9844backed Yes | 0c | 4,055$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…009ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…34a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,676$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 1c | 3,495$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…2b4bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…23e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…64eebacked Yes | 3c | 3,138$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…883dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…0a0bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,097$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,016$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…e364backed Yes | 2c | 2,937$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 14c | 2,872$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…ec12backed Yes | 2c | 2,735$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…679abacked Yes | 2c | 2,678$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…785ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,661$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f1…926cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,587$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,586$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,502$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…b7d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,494$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456c…b574backed Yes | 17c | 2,484$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 2c | 2,430$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,347$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…a269backed Yes | 1c | 2,280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…e2c1backed Yes | 9c | 2,252$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 5c | 2,063$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed Yes | 12c | 2,062$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 2c | 2,043$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…51d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3e53backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…942dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,888$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…8b7bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,866$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…4415backed Yes | 5c | 1,839$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fa…e341backed Yes | 3c | 1,829$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…e546backed Yes | 1c | 1,704$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4724…2eb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,689$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…e1bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,663$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…ff20backed Yes | 1c | 1,549$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 6c | 1,531$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…82c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee5…4dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,476$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…84a4backed Yes | 14c | 1,460$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,450$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 18c | 1,347$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,342$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f376backed Yes | 7c | 1,339$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…072fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,329$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…641cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,277$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 12c | 1,243$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…8c25backed Yes | 2c | 1,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 4c | 1,213$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,207$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,192$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,124$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.