Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c3455dd5be1637b7a242acc8846664dabb9dea666ad4074057d55168a60639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 4c | 5,084$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…4d37backed Yes | 2c | 1,719$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Yes | 5c | 1,154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…bda9backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes | 17c | 581.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 15c | 579.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 522.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 3c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 418$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…d584backed No | 66c | 331$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +346.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…e459backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd825…e80dbacked No | 68c | 236.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed No | 67c | 222$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 70c | 212$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…1f1cbacked No | 70c | 201$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked Yes | 16c | 159.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…05debacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 67.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…abbdbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…4c95backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…fac3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…0813backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.