Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x146892e9657e93e047f521b8470f4868872fd8a7497498a4faabbb9ba21e6c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $405,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 44,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 8,939$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,693$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…14c2backed Yes | 4c | 8,458$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 8,347$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,413$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 2c | 6,313$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 4c | 5,400$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 5,123$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…c180backed Yes | 2c | 4,825$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9109…737dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,808$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 3c | 4,363$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…b07bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,292$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab62…4a6dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 3c | 4,145$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 2c | 4,003$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 1c | 3,885$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,451$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,239$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…b732backed Yes | 4c | 2,952$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 2c | 2,846$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…ec99backed Yes | 1c | 2,407$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…2c30backed Yes | 3c | 2,242$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…5eeabacked Yes | 1c | 2,058$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…803ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,957$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 4c | 1,901$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e388backed Yes | 1c | 1,781$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 1,777$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…6569backed Yes | 1c | 1,740$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…1c57backed Yes | 3c | 1,697$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125b…e22bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,414$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,287$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964b…4832backed Yes | 7c | 1,176$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…bb7dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 8c | 1,156$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f27ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed Yes | 8c | 1,122$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…88e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…fcbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 3c | 1,085$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Yes | 2c | 1,080$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…d431backed Yes | 5c | 1,042$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944d…049abacked Yes | 6c | 1,002$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…88b7backed Yes | 1c | 999.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Yes | 2c | 999.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 1c | 999.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…4913backed Yes | 4c | 865.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…9da2backed Yes | 1c | 853.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…c7d7backed Yes | 2c | 850.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2261…acdbbacked Yes | 2c | 841.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 9c | 832.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…1145backed Yes | 3c | 800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…e997backed Yes | 2c | 799.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 764.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…ea94backed Yes | 1c | 763.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…cc7abacked Yes | 3c | 744.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 2c | 715.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 715$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 2c | 675.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 5c | 672.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 620$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 551.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 8c | 549.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 2c | 543.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 3c | 533.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…6db6backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…5ba8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…9362backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…4956backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…a1adbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…d8fabacked Yes | 2c | 466.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 13c | 453.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…3bdbbacked Yes | 9c | 439.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…7f9fbacked Yes | 3c | 345.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 320.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…dbf4backed Yes | 4c | 299$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…e3acbacked Yes | 7c | 287.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…3989backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 9c | 200.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…1f4cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…1539backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…5333backed Yes | 8c | 180.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 8c | 168$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…6de1backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.