TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5257…f27e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.75
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
Thunder vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Warriors vs. Wizardsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Nets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+31.6%+$11.05
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+37%+$10.8
Raptors vs. Celticsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$262.79
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Hornets vs. Mavericksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+217.5%+$138.96
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$272.43
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+212.3%+$107.38
Suns vs. Netsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$36.96
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$10.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Cardinals vs. Coltsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 45m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.