TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c14…0869backed No55c2,064$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.022290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No65c1,703$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.91392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+67.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No72c1,138$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2809…c934backed Yes2c1,074$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes5c926$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No75c799.33$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.157100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes19c770.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No28c753.35$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.382584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes2c670$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked Yes7c630$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No62c605.15$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.4111100%11 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes4c595.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No13c545.8$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.881560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x554b…82e6backed Yes4c534.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Yes77c520.2$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5257…f27ebacked Yes4c520$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed No62c486.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.443100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes40c467.28$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No21c439.88$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.122250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes78c429.99$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3371154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be9…3912backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes33c399.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes5c391.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf6…b7c6backed Yes37c359.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No24c344.64$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.161894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No30c330.89$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.337100%7 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+96%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3639…5a89backed Yes5c305$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3615…d531backed Yes3c292.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes15c291.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c264.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.056933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x073e…f715backed Yes76c262.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb91f…902cbacked Yes5c206.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14070%0 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xac02…af1bbacked Yes31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes21c165.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf4d…757fbacked Yes61c163.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No18c163.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.674725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa20e…6901backed Yes67c151.85$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No21c149.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.481492.9%13 W · 1 L+7.8wins+0.56per pick37cpaid+149.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No25c140.41$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.711070%7 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick28cpaid+177.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed Yes79c127.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07d3…9605backed Yes80c126$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No19c118.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.37977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.49per pick28cpaid+159.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Yes32c109.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed No34c105$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes20c100.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec3…40acbacked Yes77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f4…a635backed Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+43%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8a5…8805backed Yes60c90$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes74c90$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.630%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No65c78.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.77580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c71…e0b5backed Yes13c78.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No17c77.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6411100%11 W · 0 L+6.5wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+177.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf65d…e573backed No56c73.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.415100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.433100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No26c71.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+159.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b3…d146backed No29c70.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+250.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed23…7996backed Yes71c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes80c66.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f10…6db5backed Yes78c57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2570%0 W · 7 L-4.3wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No58c51.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7781…8a18backed Yes40c50.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95dc…4b45backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23fb…e34ebacked Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7622…e618backed Yes77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…d4debacked Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd19…7c85backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4c…9ab9backed Yes75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed No22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Yes76c49.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed No49c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+195.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes80c48.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x145a…ea3fbacked No23c48.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed No44c48.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No59c46.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.152445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5062…2c3dbacked Yes77c46.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick53cpaid-81%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes33c44.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Yes74c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.640%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Yes73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes80c33.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No56c30.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked Yes79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.730%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4347…62bcbacked Yes77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Yes77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb523…7138backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes55c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6769…8355backed Yes76c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes75c26.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0071…32dfbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x175e…1ec9backed Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x659c…a086backed Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x777e…d384backed Yes77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.