China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02c93bba88547ee9cb2f171a1359eeb0e1b8116035bc4913492da52cc4a6325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 70c | 1,044$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 33c | 1,004$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.89 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 77c | 934.55$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 7c | 892.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 48c | 723.92$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.9 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 35c | 642.59$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.47 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 42c | 541.04$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.83 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…5a89backed Yes | 5c | 520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 64c | 449$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 19c | 427.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 31c | 353.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 69c | 317.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 70c | 309.12$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 293.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 274.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…c700backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 24c | 212.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.49per pick | 28cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 35c | 200.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +7.7wins | +0.65per pick | 27cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…6b1abacked Yes | 77c | 138.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed Yes | 77c | 130.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…09e8backed Yes | 62c | 128$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…31aabacked Yes | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 98.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 26c | 74.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 28cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…7b95backed Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…c894backed Yes | 64c | 55.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e874backed No | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…f99fbacked Yes | 71c | 33.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…a9eabacked Yes | 61c | 31.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -5.2wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…5690backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 69c | 24.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…b98abacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…8ee8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.