China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46ef79df016cc753d27962cc195788ceb9b6b69a44a57c7cd27cef6cabc70d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 34c | 170.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 59c | 161.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 53c | 119.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 49c | 118.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 103.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 25c | 101.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.49per pick | 28cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked No | 76c | 101.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 44c | 88.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 66c | 85.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 81.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed Yes | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…05e3backed Yes | 36c | 52.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked Yes | 42c | 44.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…61ffbacked No | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…a04bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 46c | 24.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked No | 66c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…73b1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked No | 76c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…a9eabacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1e…f7b9backed No | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…ae2fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.