China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1ae118a6c915e29a2ff81904adc18d2361c3559560e8d9b7413ec401e4ff32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 3c | 520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 59c | 441.23$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 41c | 411.02$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed Yes | 7c | 385$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 60c | 223.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…2e0dbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 30c | 199.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 60c | 190.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…31bfbacked No | 58c | 171$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 103.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…09e2backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…b0ffbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 50c | 28.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.