China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dad132382c2f64d5bea507aed23879d9bc447371637b37c5914467cf780a82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…3e15backed Yes | 19c | 1,708$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 1,057$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed Yes | 4c | 860$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 52c | 783.37$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.27 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 7c | 610$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 66c | 421.16$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 13c | 305.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +7.7wins | +0.65per pick | 27cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 72c | 297.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…7392backed Yes | 68c | 295.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked Yes | 66c | 289.3$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…4808backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 68c | 168$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes | 15c | 134.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 30c | 119.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 103.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 34c | 102.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…e573backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 40c | 97.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 63c | 70.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 70.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…4060backed Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 27.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…05e3backed Yes | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…6affbacked Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 70c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3519…b4f1backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.