China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e3407225dda336a1a805948a8b333f56f1ea949114c7d67ad38ef4190135433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 69c | 574.63$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 71c | 568.29$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.74 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 15c | 460$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…7392backed No | 69c | 435.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 292.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 262.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…e05cbacked Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…f379backed Yes | 7c | 156.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 49c | 142$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +7.7wins | +0.65per pick | 27cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 63c | 137$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 120.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b2…ccbfbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 33c | 113.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 70c | 107.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…31aabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…09e2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 30c | 95.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…b210backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 70c | 90.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…82d9backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…e1bcbacked Yes | 15c | 65.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…8f0ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…f99fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…b6dcbacked Yes | 30c | 34.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…28febacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.