TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,133 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9416…7123backed Yes4c3,401$122 inLost-$122.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes1c3,401$41 inLost-$41.02977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.49per pick28cpaid+159.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c3,293$40 inLost-$39.724725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43e4…837bbacked Yes2c3,290$56 inLost-$55.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c2,289$84 inLost-$84.472250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c2,020$53 inLost-$53.212544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes2c1,663$33 inLost-$33.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174e…b3c0backed Yes4c990$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes2c953.08$22 inLost-$21.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes3c786.93$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes2c632$14 inLost-$14.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes4c574$25 inLost-$251625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes4c553.05$21 inLost-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes3c500$16 inLost-$15.91492.9%13 W · 1 L+7.8wins+0.56per pick37cpaid+149.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes2c499.98$10 inLost-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d49…8688backed Yes4c488.38$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf4d…757fbacked Yes3c487.8$13 inLost-$12.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…ea3fbacked Yes3c394.59$14 inLost-$13.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes4c385.84$16 inLost-$15.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes7c294.3$21 inLost-$20.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes8c262.98$21 inLost-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8271…1b26backed Yes8c242.86$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes8c178.47$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes6c170$10 inLost-$10.260%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x89a6…85cdbacked Yes9c140$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.