China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f90ef6ae6cc048c1316b3f4e148fd910157f013fdc9b25b9e131f5a0205768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 31c | 2,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 2,208$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.16 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 63c | 1,467$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.53 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…11d5backed Yes | 7c | 420$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…7392backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 49c | 274.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 68c | 244.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…67e8backed Yes | 9c | 216.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 210.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 35c | 207.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 6c | 198.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…d74cbacked Yes | 6c | 188.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes | 64c | 156.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 65c | 154.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…a635backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…e0b5backed Yes | 11c | 135.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 38c | 99.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 36c | 91.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 28c | 90.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 35c | 89.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.49per pick | 28cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 71c | 84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 31c | 79.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked Yes | 62c | 78.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 64c | 77.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 71c | 73.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 41c | 69.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…769bbacked Yes | 62c | 67.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…dd62backed Yes | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 65c | 35.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed No | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Yes | 50c | 31.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…b235backed Yes | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 63c | 25.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…e573backed No | 75c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.