China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142220af5e5297d96da62660b37720ac39e29b10214ca103a518b626bc1ee855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 2,348$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 25c | 2,178$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.14 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 66c | 2,114$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.01 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes | 76c | 2,083$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…c934backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 1,360$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 24c | 1,318$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.2 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 32c | 869.44$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.9 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 27c | 786.62$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.21 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 78c | 779.54$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 536.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…6c1dbacked Yes | 78c | 511.87$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…3912backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 73c | 486.91$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 50c | 471.65$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes | 5c | 441.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 6c | 360.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 74c | 350$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 27c | 349.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 79c | 305.72$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…53b6backed Yes | 6c | 301.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked Yes | 73c | 288.58$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes | 6c | 271.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 22c | 270.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 28cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 76c | 256.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 231.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 74c | 202.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 202.34$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 27c | 163.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.49per pick | 28cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 30c | 162.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…e0b5backed Yes | 10c | 151.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 34c | 151.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…8805backed Yes | 70c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…f715backed Yes | 72c | 139.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 73c | 137.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 25c | 136.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Yes | 68c | 129.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…e378backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb56…89ddbacked Yes | 79c | 109.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…a635backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…3c9fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…60babacked Yes | 52c | 96.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 64c | 95.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c59…309fbacked Yes | 10c | 95.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 36c | 84.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes | 14c | 82.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…e881backed Yes | 75c | 80.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 50c | 80.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…c755backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Yes | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 71.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…31aabacked Yes | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked No | 24c | 64.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…9176backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…f99fbacked Yes | 66c | 61.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…05e3backed Yes | 72c | 55.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…9605backed Yes | 73c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…e618backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 75c | 45.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 78c | 32.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 52c | 32.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…8a18backed Yes | 66c | 30.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -5.2wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…b98abacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…b235backed Yes | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…fedfbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.