TailMyPicks
Market

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08ce…f301backed Yes1c2,348$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No25c2,178$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.141392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+67.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No66c2,114$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.012290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes76c2,083$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.4370%0 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2809…c934backed Yes1c1,441$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes5c1,360$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.72633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No24c1,318$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.21894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14090%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No32c869.44$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.97100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No27c786.62$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.2111100%11 W · 0 L+6.5wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+177.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes78c779.54$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c536.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.224325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Yes78c511.87$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3be9…3912backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes73c486.91$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No50c471.65$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes5c441.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes6c360.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes74c350$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.491154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No27c349.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.144100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+184.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No79c305.72$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e3…53b6backed Yes6c301.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee41…68cdbacked Yes73c288.58$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes6c271.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No22c270.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101070%7 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick28cpaid+177.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes76c256.51$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No25c231.47$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.482250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes74c202.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No75c202.34$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.632445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1461492.9%13 W · 1 L+7.8wins+0.56per pick37cpaid+149.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No27c163.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.17977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.49per pick28cpaid+159.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No30c162.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.161687.5%14 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9c71…e0b5backed Yes10c151.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No34c151.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.822584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No25c150$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-3.4wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8a5…8805backed Yes70c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x073e…f715backed Yes72c139.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes73c137.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No25c136.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+159.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x722c…1011backed Yes68c129.28$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed Yes79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed Yes33c111$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes37c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb56…89ddbacked Yes79c109.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…81c0backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac3a…6835backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f4…a635backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7330%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf28…3c9fbacked Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No23c99.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc3fc…60babacked Yes52c96.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes64c95.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c59…309fbacked Yes10c95.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No36c84.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.057100%7 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+96%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1e5…31b5backed Yes14c82.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1035…e881backed Yes75c80.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb959…b18fbacked Yes50c80.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes69c80$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Yes70c79.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid+75.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No27c71.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.084725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x070a…31aabacked Yes75c67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3124…014bbacked No24c64.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+109.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.293100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d42…9176backed Yes79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b46…f99fbacked Yes66c61.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a53…05e3backed Yes72c55.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d3…9605backed Yes73c55.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.320%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7622…e618backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251225%3 W · 9 L-4.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-66.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No75c45.49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes72c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.470%0 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes76c32.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Yes78c32.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No52c32.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.461656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+43%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked No32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7781…8a18backed Yes66c30.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.930%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da7…1474backed Yes69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick53cpaid-63.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.920%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0487…d452backed Yes69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1727…dac2backed Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-5.2wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xee4a…b98abacked Yes74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c56…9774backed Yes74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b73…b235backed Yes75c26.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e37…fedfbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-2.3wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.