China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6703a93d6f2162dc38c850c35cd2dc87f6041d9600a865e394c26eeb36add457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 31c | 4,254$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3e15backed Yes | 10c | 2,076$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 63c | 1,852$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.03 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…7996backed Yes | 2c | 1,788$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 55c | 1,400$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.84 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 1,081$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…79b1backed Yes | 57c | 996.98$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 2c | 900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 18c | 679.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes | 56c | 644.56$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 12c | 585$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 46c | 530$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 38c | 520$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 60c | 518$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…1d12backed Yes | 2c | 500.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 69c | 495.34$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Yes | 8c | 471.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 70c | 380$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 55c | 360.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Yes | 5c | 341.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 40c | 333$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 42c | 325$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 252.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…b235backed No | 70c | 248.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked Yes | 69c | 245.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 37c | 240$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 19c | 209.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +7.7wins | +0.65per pick | 27cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…f715backed Yes | 72c | 208.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 42c | 200.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 73c | 192.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 57c | 176.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 44c | 174.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.49per pick | 28cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 44c | 172.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 75c | 163.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 65c | 153.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 145.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed Yes | 78c | 140.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 32c | 128.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…9c60backed Yes | 61c | 124.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 68c | 117.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 43c | 115.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 48c | 110.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 43c | 110.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…5797backed Yes | 58c | 109.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…e573backed No | 64c | 107.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…8a18backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…9176backed No | 50c | 101.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…1ac9backed Yes | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 45c | 95.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 34c | 89.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…e7d5backed No | 46c | 87.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 52c | 83.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 53c | 76.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed No | 39c | 74.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…e881backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 72c | 56.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 38c | 51.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…09e2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…05e3backed No | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 57c | 45.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…04ccbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c511backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…4fbbbacked Yes | 56c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed No | 60c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…9741backed No | 33c | 32.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…024dbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed No | 41c | 31.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…4b08backed No | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…a9eabacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…8f83backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…fedfbacked Yes | 77c | 19.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…14c8backed Yes | 62c | 17.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…bf4ebacked Yes | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…6affbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.