TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes31c4,254$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.6290%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…3e15backed Yes10c2,076$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No63c1,852$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.037100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed23…7996backed Yes2c1,788$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No55c1,400$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.842290.9%20 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+68.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c1,081$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.743043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25c7…79b1backed Yes57c996.98$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes2c900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes18c679.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes56c644.56$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes12c585$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No46c530$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.671070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No38c520$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed Yes60c518$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9460%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe7a1…1d12backed Yes2c500.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No69c495.34$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.911100%11 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x53ee…700bbacked Yes8c471.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No70c380$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.62584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes55c360.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x722c…1011backed Yes5c341.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No40c333$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.81894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No42c325$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18911100%11 W · 0 L+6.5wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+177.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No41c252.13$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.142250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b73…b235backed No70c248.8$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee41…68cdbacked Yes69c245.06$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No37c240$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No19c209.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.091291.7%11 W · 1 L+7.7wins+0.65per pick27cpaid+327.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x073e…f715backed Yes72c208.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes42c200.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.12544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed No73c192.86$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.863100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes57c176.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No44c174.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.98977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.49per pick28cpaid+159.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No44c172.68$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.74725.5%12 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No75c163.97$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.647100%7 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+96%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes65c153.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-3.4wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes62c145.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.954325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed Yes78c140.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes32c128.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dad…9c60backed Yes61c124.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No68c117.84$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No43c115.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No48c110.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick60cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No43c110.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa9…5797backed Yes58c109.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf65d…e573backed No64c107.74$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.445100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7781…8a18backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No44c105$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.071040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d42…9176backed No50c101.28$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841560%9 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+196.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561492.9%13 W · 1 L+7.8wins+0.56per pick37cpaid+149.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xa300…1ac9backed Yes61c99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No45c95.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes34c89.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed No46c87.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No45c85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.951687.5%14 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes52c83.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed No22c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed No53c76.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5da7…1474backed No39c74.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick53cpaid-63.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1035…e881backed Yes59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes55c65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7570%0 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes72c56.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No38c51.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.64887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+123.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…09e2backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L-4.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-66.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes52c49.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No22c49.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a53…05e3backed No41c48.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes57c45.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.04875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2f…04ccbacked Yes33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2836…c511backed No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…4fbbbacked Yes56c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c56…9774backed No60c33.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.43560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac6…9741backed No33c32.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed No50c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16911.1%1 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-77.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x23e9…024dbacked Yes79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed No41c31.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadcb…4b08backed No48c31.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec19…a9eabacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f9…8f83backed No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed No65c21.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2af2…3965backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f10…6db5backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1170%0 W · 7 L-4.3wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9e37…fedfbacked Yes77c19.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-2.3wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5bd…d122backed Yes78c19.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a39…14c8backed Yes62c17.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7822…bf4ebacked Yes76c15.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5983…6affbacked Yes70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.