China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144d68f6e66b1ea6ea2bd98aabec14b10c68b20732fc46be7b004a2fe5a89769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 75c | 1,016$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Yes | 3c | 392.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 35c | 199.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 45c | 158.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.56per pick | 37cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 35c | 110.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 55c | 109.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +6.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 50c | 85.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…8fe1backed Yes | 63c | 63.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6605…bee7backed Yes | 65c | 55.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…4fd9backed Yes | 69c | 44.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 69c | 38.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…e881backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -5.2wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 60c | 26.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…5690backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f10…6db5backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…09e8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fair relationship" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Hungary" or "Budapest" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Modi" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.