TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$417,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c16,553$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.65368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ce…4753backed No1c13,578$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No1c13,254$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.712817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c0…81d6backed No0c10,059$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked No3c9,607$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1d…f400backed No4c9,538$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed No3c9,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.98156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+166.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed No4c5,931$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked No12c5,725$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab0…955fbacked No3c5,391$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac53…367fbacked No7c5,108$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152035%7 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfc1…6a7dbacked No6c4,705$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,453$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.171,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No8c4,311$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4219348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked No2c4,200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.21128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-89.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc5…c818backed No1c3,714$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c24…9809backed No1c3,375$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3182…51e4backed No2c3,227$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3255…6488backed No0c3,061$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab2…e686backed No2c3,040$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked No6c3,004$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+58.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c2,829$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c13…5d00backed No2c2,758$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No1c2,625$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3313…8355backed No2c2,465$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…2f60backed No5c2,402$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…4437backed No2c2,166$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a7…73b2backed No5c2,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…7be7backed No1c2,075$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No5c1,850$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.852941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5fc…5b21backed No2c1,821$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…a973backed No3c1,818$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8a…1d35backed No1c1,743$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba4…798bbacked No3c1,726$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc796…e4f5backed No2c1,697$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed No9c1,600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed No9c1,587$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.491464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked No2c1,566$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.321729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaa…7688backed No3c1,520$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d0…d63cbacked No7c1,494$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No1c1,490$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.295614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…a0febacked No7c1,427$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No9c1,343$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.983663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec0f…3bbabacked No2c1,308$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb392…28a5backed No2c1,296$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944d…049abacked No3c1,281$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed No7c1,250$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.052817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd646…f37ebacked No5c1,225$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5fa4backed No3c1,217$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42b…8392backed No5c1,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No5c1,199$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa32…4443backed No7c1,175$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5185…79e6backed No2c1,103$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7410…da32backed No5c1,080$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cea…c786backed No4c1,026$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0447…2dccbacked No5c1,025$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked No5c1,002$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.17156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…d12cbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x338e…646ebacked No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb418…4fa6backed No1c975.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed No2c974.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1f…e26fbacked No2c970.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed No2c956.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c951.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed No9c946.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.52045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfc…6b04backed No3c923.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2185backed No13c916.88$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dc…43a4backed No6c898.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d3…38ffbacked No5c821.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…704ebacked No5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a7…6dd3backed No9c793.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.241060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c6…d78ebacked No5c787.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0069…f357backed No2c772.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4977…4c00backed No2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed No3c727.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223915.4%6 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfa…79dcbacked No7c715.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d7b…197dbacked No7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed No9c698.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa430…0de1backed No2c670.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9897…34e8backed No3c657.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4074…0a67backed No2c639.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked No5c616.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e76…3372backed No5c555.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa14…ebb0backed No5c555.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb0…8d5abacked No5c517.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4070…5a02backed No3c502.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked No8c501.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.32137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-88.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0ef5backed No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No8c499.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f3…646abacked No5c499.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4490…8261backed No7c477.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…c13cbacked No2c470$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5257…f27ebacked No5c460.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea31…ec43backed No2c457.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0491…5b1cbacked No3c435.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe91…509ebacked No7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-85.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.