TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9119…d179

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.72
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+31.7%+$6.13
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+30.2%+$12.55
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.25
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.59
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.84
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+84.3%+$49.73
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+37%+$8.5
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.07
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+60.6%+$12.59
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+47.4%+$14.06
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+84.6%+$15.36
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$27.7
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$19.8
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+177.8%+$105.58
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$35.63
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.73
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$34.29
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$136.99
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.7
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+32.4%+$179.14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+108.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Giants vs. Eaglesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.53
Bills vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+194.1%+$20.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Navy (-14.5)backed Florida Atlantic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$24.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.8%+$30.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$35.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shohei Ohtani be named the 2025 World Series MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$59.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.