TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e5…95e7backed No45c1,293$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.858036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No68c1,138$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.222737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes60c741.56$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.072259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No58c540.96$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.411915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes45c532.46$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No48c400$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19069634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes30c350$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24513714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes46c327.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0813145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No55c307.62$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No52c300.36$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.062458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No61c257$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.74117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes55c238.88$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ea…0882backed Yes78c230.66$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No60c200.22$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.327834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes41c183$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.463663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes50c170$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.36459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.813138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.54839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No53c146$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7213029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes69c145.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.362231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes47c136.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.973959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes40c113.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.193542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No50c112.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.572817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.25339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No33c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.656256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes47c104.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.194240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6140…08b0backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes46c99.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.733253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No54c99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5513943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No43c83.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes51c70.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.617343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf454…7eccbacked No45c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes45c67.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f8…a822backed Yes34c58.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d0…77cbbacked No52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34eb…cafbbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed Yes54c33.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes56c32.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3efa…2667backed No50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6564…ffe3backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7033…3f7dbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.