Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bcdf31c20d8ac286c762b5fbbf48759362edf08f90727484a552e5686016ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 45c | 1,293$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.85 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 68c | 1,138$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.22 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 60c | 741.56$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 58c | 540.96$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 532.46$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 46c | 327.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 55c | 307.62$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 52c | 300.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 61c | 257$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 55c | 238.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…0882backed Yes | 78c | 230.66$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 60c | 200.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 41c | 183$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 50c | 170$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 53c | 146$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 69c | 145.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 47c | 136.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 40c | 113.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 50c | 112.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 47c | 104.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 46c | 99.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 54c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 43c | 83.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 51c | 70.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked No | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 45c | 67.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…a822backed Yes | 34c | 58.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…cafbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 54c | 33.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 56c | 32.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…2667backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…ffe3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3f7dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?this page
- Will Trump talk to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.