Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x005aa3a9e019fade8240f0651b631d27fa74549aed52dea9a95a5de9533b119f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed No | 26c | 14,092$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,616.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 76c | 6,241$4,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 4,303$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.88 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…5458backed Yes | 72c | 4,254$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…8809backed No | 1c | 1,384$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…26fbbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed Yes | 73c | 1,043$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…ceb9backed No | 9c | 1,025$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 1,008$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.04 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 24c | 927.32$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 34c | 879.67$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.38 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed No | 13c | 758.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 19c | 738.36$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 7c | 651.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…af47backed No | 25c | 634.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7f…caeabacked No | 32c | 602.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 561.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 76c | 533.73$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 8c | 511.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6d…dd9fbacked Yes | 66c | 500$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 77c | 471.32$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 78c | 396.84$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed No | 23c | 367.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 28c | 333.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed No | 13c | 316.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 35c | 288.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 11c | 285.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19e…53cebacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…c80fbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 75c | 246.31$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 13c | 239$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf14…c731backed No | 24c | 212.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 18c | 210.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 71c | 203.68$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 59c | 202.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed Yes | 78c | 182.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 49c | 182$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 80c | 179.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…e6e5backed No | 7c | 152.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked No | 24c | 133.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 77c | 132.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 26c | 129.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 74c | 129.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed Yes | 78c | 128.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dd…b761backed No | 32c | 125.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…36dabacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…1957backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…840dbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 30c | 90.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…bf46backed No | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 79c | 63.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 74c | 52.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 74c | 50.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed Yes | 74c | 46.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…98babacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 73c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 73c | 31.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6aacbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…41c4backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked Yes | 73c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…5304backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?this page
- Will Trump talk to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.