Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbf40215541bf867c4e03c2a37f27eb38180178dd41943215a7aefe64ede2cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 11c | 1,700$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 19c | 1,618$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.64 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…fe76backed No | 29c | 1,030$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 20c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…af47backed No | 9c | 989.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 65c | 757.77$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.86 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…3234backed No | 36c | 704.25$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 69c | 641.61$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 79c | 588.03$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…955fbacked No | 15c | 508.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 21c | 499.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 30c | 404.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 49c | 395$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.28 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 375.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 64c | 348.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.63 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 64c | 343.34$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 9c | 320$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…98c8backed Yes | 71c | 270$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 36c | 252.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…dbd4backed Yes | 71c | 230$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 78c | 217.12$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…cd86backed Yes | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed No | 32c | 208$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 29c | 205.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6d…dd9fbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed No | 8c | 178.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 65c | 175.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…435abacked No | 20c | 166.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…80f6backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19e…53cebacked No | 17c | 117.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 69c | 107.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 19c | 106.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 30c | 101.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 12c | 87.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 86.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 70c | 59.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 33c | 58.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed No | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…99a8backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…966ebacked No | 27c | 51.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…8544backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 76c | 45.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 67c | 39.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…3b51backed No | 28c | 38.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 68c | 38.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…f004backed Yes | 71c | 32.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?this page
- Will Trump talk to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in October?No won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.