TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$377,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17a9…9080backed No15c28,182$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,202.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked No10c5,000$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No4c4,171$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.42941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed No10c3,841$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c3,686$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed No12c3,255$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.134729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No9c3,172$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.022674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No10c2,536$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.261010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-85.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No10c2,385$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.511729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ac…955dbacked No14c2,358$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+255.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes80c2,250$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No6c2,003$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No13c1,998$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.752638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No13c1,846$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-88.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No10c1,586$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3615452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No13c1,248$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.546428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No13c1,027$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6510723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13070%0 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No9c999.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…d611backed No11c999.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No11c999.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No6c999.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No10c988.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No11c964.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.158257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb00…c338backed No12c858.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeeb…7c86backed No10c780$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c771.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02a…8edbbacked No13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed No11c727.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c97…3b0ebacked No14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-81.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No7c676.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.23712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed No11c652.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+163.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No11c600.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No7c600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4966…0401backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473e…e718backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66c…4fafbacked No11c540.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No10c518$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x328f…4079backed No11c516.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.731020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe020…3455backed No15c507.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-92.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a8f8backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-78.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf434…c6aabacked Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed No11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc88…a949backed No10c499.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x501a…5165backed No15c479.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c2…784abacked No12c431.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…a1bcbacked No10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795a…b875backed No9c399.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9970%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No13c381.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.495111.8%6 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No10c371.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6132228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No9c367$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.785950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56af…e2a4backed No15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae3b…3b2bbacked No15c324.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No9c302.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa18d…b16abacked Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked No7c270.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e2…e255backed No10c249.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b1…7b31backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No7c210.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.088041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No12c209.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.212639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed No13c205.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a7…6dd3backed No13c205.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5660%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e46…e22fbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc8…4c11backed No13c192.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…42ebbacked No11c190.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f5…9495backed No11c188.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed No11c186.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No9c182.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.848923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b2…84babacked No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-81.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed No14c152.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86c…10f3backed No12c123.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc28b…3a2abacked No12c108.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No10c104$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca3…d14abacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf847…5bc9backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba6…3f82backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa515…fd70backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf448…e370backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123414.7%5 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc21…9eb9backed No11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x429e…63a4backed No14c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked No14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.