TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb94c…3c05

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5040%20 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+522.3%+$291.94
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.34
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$22.94
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.44
Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Harry Kane: 3+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Declan Rice: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.55
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Lionel Messi: 3+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.28
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$25.6
Pedro Porro: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$18.7
Alex Baena: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.1
Alex Baena: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+131.4%+$26.12
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.12
Cucurella: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$14.67
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Erling Haaland score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$25.82
Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+112.5%+$84.38
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.48
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+53.3%+$24.34
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$47.36
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$23.42
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$150.17
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$59.09
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+97.7%+$141.06
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+52.3%+$24.7
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$89.76
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$23.98
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$33.47
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 187m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$29.7
Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+77.8%+$58.75
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+69.2%+$27.12
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$122
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$16.65
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25.14
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$88
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+163.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+51.5%+$7.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$25.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.