TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Lilo & Stitch be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes0c16,500$33 inLost-$33850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf918…0a2dbacked Yes50c15,200$7,600 inLost-$7,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd4…15d8backed No50c15,200$7,600 inWon+$7,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$39.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c6,415$86 inLost-$86.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes2c4,124$62 inLost-$61.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes16c3,813$606 inLost-$605.8770%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,935$34 inLost-$34.251,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c1,162$15 inLost-$15.016123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$122941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes4c541.99$20 inLost-$203740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Yes3c489.41$16 inLost-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+163.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No72c117.43$84 inWon+$33.382240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No79c95.4$75 inWon+$19.9489417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.692454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.