TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59d5…a273backed Yes8c14,209$1,113 inWon+$13,096.451250%6 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes9c3,487$320 inWon+$3,166.582634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+133.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes22c2,766$605 inWon+$2,161.066100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Yes11c2,682$286 inWon+$2,395.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick27cpaid+226%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf328…219cbacked Yes10c2,349$237 inWon+$2,111.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+230%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069a…4634backed Yes7c1,307$90 inWon+$1,217.814100%4 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+915.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfeee…a4a9backed No72c1,000$720 inLost-$7201540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c853.37$78 inWon+$775.571,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes11c799.98$88 inWon+$711.98616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3d…0beebacked Yes7c696.33$51 inWon+$645.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+244.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe141…8647backed Yes18c578.72$103 inWon+$475.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+86.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfa…7fc6backed Yes8c519.24$40 inWon+$479.245100%5 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+558.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf75…7018backed Yes14c494.42$68 inWon+$426.421330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe821…248fbacked Yes12c404.97$50 inWon+$354.971233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f5…9495backed Yes12c348.42$41 inWon+$307.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes11c335.1$35 inWon+$299.642751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes10c329.99$32 inWon+$298.016328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No6c305$20 inLost-$19.620148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes7c300$21 inWon+$279.311850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes60c294.27$176 inWon+$118.619632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Yes10c200$20 inWon+$179.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes7c200$14 inWon+$185.66841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd68…b9c2backed Yes10c100$10 inWon+$904100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+490%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes72c81.32$58 inWon+$22.95735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes80c25$20 inWon+$54736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.