AI · resolved market
Will Ne Zha 2 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a5aa016fc5385cdf81b0066d0a1b80429449eddd836f2110c2c22c89997cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9abc…3509backed Yes | 1c | 7,167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…ddfbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,580$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…352bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,257$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…65f8backed Yes | 1c | 4,118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 0c | 3,869$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…7f42backed Yes | 1c | 3,701$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 1,361$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 4c | 768.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…ec4bbacked Yes | 2c | 552.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 7c | 408.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ne Zha 2 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?this page
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes won
- Will Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will F1 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will How to Train Your Dragon be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Lilo & Stitch be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Sinners be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
- Will Weapons be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.