Movies · resolved market
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 187m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8181093a5433ef3da26ead13952c035ae3d9eb6899c18120b531232df4ecab26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Yes | 7c | 23,922$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…f372backed Yes | 0c | 11,702$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 1c | 5,485$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,445$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,414$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.06 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…b830backed Yes | 1c | 3,047$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…81cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,827$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…908abacked Yes | 16c | 1,520$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 3c | 982.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 71c | 965.88$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.1 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…5f74backed Yes | 2c | 940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed No | 77c | 820.06$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…3c05backed Yes | 4c | 679.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 562.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 4c | 554.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 6c | 420$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…de76backed Yes | 6c | 401.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…0b52backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 19c | 252.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 94.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…9e8cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 187m?this page
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m?Yes won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?No won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 177m and 187m?No won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.