Movies · resolved market
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 177m and 187m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf1858a366be144528ba97dba01104878287b93d9631d9617a997a8af4d3ed76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Yes | 0c | 17,287$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,537$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.61 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 1c | 5,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…f372backed Yes | 1c | 5,155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,885$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,778$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…81cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,893$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…d6b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,661$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 8c | 1,537$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,391$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 9c | 1,211$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…b830backed Yes | 3c | 1,187$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 3c | 611.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 12c | 438.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 3c | 343.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 265.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 7c | 225.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 171.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed Yes | 16c | 67.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 177m and 187m?this page
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m?Yes won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?No won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 187m?No won
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.