Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef2df84cf176093e5500e3914f82b287d828698bcb1f33c1642277725db938d

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,910 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	19c	14,205$2,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,739.67	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under	29c	5,623$1,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,639.77	469	43.5%204 W · 265 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over	65c	4,437$2,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,573.78	827	63%521 W · 306 L	+113.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Over	52c	3,922$2,030 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,891.96	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	28c	2,043$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.3	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under	27c	1,478$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.15	120	20.8%25 W · 95 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over	76c	1,379$1,046 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.87	282	42.2%119 W · 163 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over	75c	1,005$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.66	150	60.7%91 W · 59 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Under	26c	598.78$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.62	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	38c	593.61$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.16	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	38c	499.4$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.65	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	75c	440.85$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.85	200	54.5%109 W · 91 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	25c	438.13$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.86	399	48.4%193 W · 206 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Over	63c	314.98$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.98	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Under	28c	303.04$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.28	104	48.1%50 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Over	74c	268.27$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.87	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+33%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	24c	268.11$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…d85abacked Over	74c	258.58$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.23	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	24c	250$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	24c	250$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1,074	45%483 W · 591 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Over	72c	246.14$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.6	271	41.7%113 W · 158 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Under	45c	220$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	265	48.3%128 W · 137 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9d…a968backed Over	75c	207.19$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.8	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Over	73c	199.99$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	106	36.8%39 W · 67 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under	51c	199.43$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.71	253	48.2%122 W · 131 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over	68c	192$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.57	209	56%117 W · 92 L	+15.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,007	51.5%519 W · 488 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over	65c	184.62$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.62	91	57.1%52 W · 39 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over	71c	183.75$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.29	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Under	42c	125.76$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.82	70	37.1%26 W · 44 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	37c	113.03$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	317	47.6%151 W · 166 L	-14.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e0f…93cbbacked Over	74c	112.57$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.57	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	18c	95.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	497	53.7%267 W · 230 L	+27.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Under	37c	95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.15	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	29c	84$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	966	45.4%439 W · 527 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…60d6backed Over	74c	80.88$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.03	69	60.9%42 W · 27 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	16c	80.35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	232	50.9%118 W · 114 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under	15c	73.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	660	31.2%206 W · 454 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over	74c	72.61$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	76	59.2%45 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	15c	72.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	255	50.2%128 W · 127 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over	74c	60$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	88	58%51 W · 37 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Under	31c	58.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Under	21c	57.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	105	40%42 W · 63 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc455…1532backed Over	72c	56.94$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Over	74c	54.05$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	87	64.4%56 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	67cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…2020backed Over	74c	54.05$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed Over	74c	54.05$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	596	45.5%271 W · 325 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…2234backed Over	72c	49.99$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaca…c634backed Over	73c	48.35$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	60c	43.33$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.33	212	50%106 W · 106 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under	36c	41.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4d…884bbacked Over	65c	41.54$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.54	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	67cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	177	59.9%106 W · 71 L	-16.7wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over	74c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	105	69.5%73 W · 32 L	+10.3wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x863f…7b79backed Over	58c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.9	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Over	64c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6ad…e759backed Over	74c	37.84$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	66c	37.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	188	51.6%97 W · 91 L	+13.2wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under	39c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	43	79.1%34 W · 9 L	+8.3wins	+0.19per pick	60cpaid	+47%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Under	28c	36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Over	61c	33.92$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over	74c	33.78$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.78	250	57.6%144 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Over	75c	33.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7587…521cbacked Over	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	33c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	35c	31.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Over	73c	29$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.83	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9152…abfbbacked Under	42c	28.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3af…2c0abacked Over	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Under	49c	27.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	36	69.4%25 W · 11 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x27de…9b6abacked Over	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…e4a4backed Over	74c	26.49$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Over	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over	76c	24.53$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-29%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Over	74c	20.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	58cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Over	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Over	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf267…aad6backed Over	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	73cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8f…2b46backed Over	75c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.75	8	100%8 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5this page
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Mansfield Town FC won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Mansfield Town FC won
Spread: Mansfield Town FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Spread: Mansfield Town FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event