Premier League · resolved market
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7d90885bd91402f0ed92ab2672c5e4a4dffe7ae0c38cbf48a5ccb5ab7316a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,546 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 13,540$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 11c | 4,312$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.1 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Under | 11c | 2,663$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Under | 13c | 2,310$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.73 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 11c | 1,077$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 868.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 10c | 563.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed Under | 2c | 510$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 9c | 279.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 11c | 266.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 11c | 238.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Under | 11c | 108.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 209 | 56%117 W · 92 L | +15.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Mansfield Town FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Mansfield Town FC won
- Spread: Mansfield Town FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Mansfield Town FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.