Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09acb580af95c03eb7c8a99537b9492bea45c1c4402a3c7f29fe94e5c68e6794

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $820,551
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $728,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $820,551 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9449…d829backed Yes	0c	354,451$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,206.67	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2195…bce2backed Yes	0c	43,712$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	19,996$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.08	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	0c	5,563$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes	0c	3,931$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	1cpaid	+1,149.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes	6c	807.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	603.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes	5c	362.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	198	25.3%50 W · 148 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe001…2fa6backed Yes	5c	361.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	277	29.2%81 W · 196 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	94	35.1%33 W · 61 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb94c…3c05backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	40%20 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event