Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893d0ada5f95e2c2c7e23abc48b4016695d33e9c9f00cdfe59a941f45d213247

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $450,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $276,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,904 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9449…d829backed Yes	0c	77,150$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.45	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c62…caeebacked Yes	0c	49,046$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.05	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	20,638$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.16	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bb…9630backed Yes	0c	12,776$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	11c	12,484$1,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,431.11	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf4…cd7fbacked Yes	0c	9,326$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+3.0wins	+0.23per pick	38cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Yes	9c	6,999$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd194…c51fbacked Yes	6c	4,761$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	150	37.3%56 W · 94 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes	5c	4,751$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.3	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	10c	4,311$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.35	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	5c	3,847$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.74	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,642$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.9	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	11c	2,863$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.42	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,430$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.41	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5910…b0d6backed Yes	4c	2,407$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	10c	2,177$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.9	198	18.7%37 W · 161 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	5c	2,131$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.87	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf935…104ebacked Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	11c	1,803$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.36	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,466$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	1c	1,248$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked Yes	10c	1,019$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3029…73acbacked Yes	8c	999.99$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1330…b4b5backed Yes	10c	999.97$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	129	27.1%35 W · 94 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0152…0808backed Yes	9c	998.04$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5a…cb9bbacked Yes	11c	993.45$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e5…3ee5backed Yes	9c	958.29$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe791…f546backed Yes	6c	948.12$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.7	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	7c	946.46$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.41	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes	8c	886.61$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.52	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd134…719bbacked Yes	2c	884.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	11c	852.11$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.33	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	9c	707.49$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.79	227	31.7%72 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd53…1917backed Yes	3c	595.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1d9…496abacked Yes	4c	563.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	19.7%15 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	10c	523$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.22	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	10c	508.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97d…3874backed Yes	10c	507$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	18.4%19 W · 84 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	9c	502.44$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x595f…9d4dbacked Yes	4c	500.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes	10c	498.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9799…486bbacked Yes	8c	493.34$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.29per pick	39cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x404d…66c4backed Yes	10c	487.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	10c	458.62$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	7c	446.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.62	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7565…5e8ebacked Yes	6c	444.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcaa…79a9backed Yes	12c	432$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.18	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes	7c	430$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	45	60%27 W · 18 L	+8.0wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb578…acbbbacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bc…fa0fbacked Yes	5c	399.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes	10c	378$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	-11.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8784…f1aebacked Yes	9c	339.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	334$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf47e…5031backed Yes	10c	328.58$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2482…fd45backed Yes	10c	308.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.36	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9d…24b3backed Yes	10c	302.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	10c	271$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	226	23.5%53 W · 173 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	9c	263.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	170	5.9%10 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Yes	12c	261.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb995…0552backed Yes	15c	260$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb229…8e56backed Yes	6c	245.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	8c	222.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…089cbacked Yes	8c	207.79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes	10c	206.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadd…7518backed Yes	10c	201.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes	9c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c63…c92abacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	263	44.1%116 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	8c	195.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Yes	11c	189.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48c6…c4d1backed Yes	11c	187.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4a66…b8d3backed Yes	8c	161.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x846a…63f7backed Yes	13c	155.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…e9eabacked Yes	10c	151.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+407.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c8…f973backed Yes	18c	141.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e43…3d79backed Yes	9c	120.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f9…4becbacked Yes	14c	117.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aff…ad90backed Yes	13c	103.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	32	25%8 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8922…4767backed Yes	10c	100.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	36cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02d0…c40bbacked Yes	11c	99.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf92…78f3backed Yes	21c	96.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa3…71fabacked Yes	12c	81.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No	80c	18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.64	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event