Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f257bf17d71d82ef9d63c83dcf3f78d5039077dcb2303d205a388dec405d7c

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,766,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,637,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,766,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9449…d829backed Yes	1c	770,939$9,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,118.02	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes	1c	32,946$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.21	299	16.7%50 W · 249 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	22,460$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	170	5.9%10 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	1c	17,033$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.61	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c0…e07fbacked Yes	3c	8,598$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	25cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	7,773$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.75	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f04…baeabacked Yes	2c	5,331$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	4c	5,156$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.47	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	0c	4,677$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a68…e2c0backed Yes	2c	4,500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	1c	4,326$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,766$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes	2c	3,188$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.93	123	27.6%34 W · 89 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40a7…dcdebacked Yes	0c	2,900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	73	5.5%4 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+212.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb229…8e56backed Yes	4c	2,867$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.56	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,669$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.67	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes	1c	2,335$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	1cpaid	+1,149.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9f…8eaebacked Yes	2c	2,301$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,321$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	4c	1,132$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	2c	956.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f45…284bbacked Yes	1c	922.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	2c	873.46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	833.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	2c	787$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	2c	665.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3e74…ec81backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	286	26.9%77 W · 209 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	7c	576.01$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d21…59f7backed Yes	4c	561.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	3c	484.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	458.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	8c	393$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.64	198	18.7%37 W · 161 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	355.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	6c	282.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	5c	273.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	227	31.7%72 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	12c	227.44$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.62	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1058…7324backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfda…ad34backed Yes	7c	190.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Yes	11c	145.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef3b…5af6backed Yes	12c	123.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	16c	91.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	29c	35.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event