Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a32ef5cbc5396ae447be27f9e2eaa6d65156c0d5b8491bdf8616f4099687c8b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $177,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $125,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9449…d829backed Yes	3c	30,590$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867.11	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	15,963$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.49	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ef…9aefbacked Yes	0c	10,720$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes	2c	7,154$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.01	64	28.1%18 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa1…53f6backed Yes	5c	5,582$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	0c	3,506$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…d8d6backed Yes	2c	2,200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	93	19.4%18 W · 75 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc787…800dbacked Yes	3c	2,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	1,970$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.61	227	31.7%72 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…39e7backed Yes	5c	1,746$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa4be…7626backed Yes	4c	1,469$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.98	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-55%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,429$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.98	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	6c	1,228$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d0…c40bbacked Yes	3c	1,013$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.71	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x595f…9d4dbacked Yes	5c	999.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	949.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.31	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc205…df1fbacked Yes	3c	947.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes	3c	933.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2354…3406backed Yes	3c	886.18$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	661.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce3…2317backed Yes	5c	644.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	34.9%29 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe512…43d1backed Yes	8c	633.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b4…512dbacked Yes	3c	595.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe713…af20backed Yes	5c	595$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5265…cce1backed Yes	4c	571.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd49…61c6backed Yes	9c	556.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	40%24 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	4c	537.04$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.14	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ec…72afbacked Yes	3c	536.23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…d71cbacked Yes	3c	504.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211a…6ef4backed Yes	5c	490$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	449.15$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes	3c	438.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6290…7f39backed Yes	5c	426.31$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0210…c9c7backed Yes	3c	399.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb578…acbbbacked Yes	6c	329.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes	4c	312.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe791…f546backed Yes	8c	311.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x100f…495abacked Yes	4c	297.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee0d…1fc5backed Yes	4c	260.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d07…33d4backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event