Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3fd40d00d13b3b33f4ccae72d8f5ccf8ca9f5265ac2e4e187d365bb0c8d8bd

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $230,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,540 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9449…d829backed Yes	3c	37,700$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.6	67	19.4%13 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Yes	16c	14,163$2,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,273.18	71	31%22 W · 49 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	5c	5,263$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.03	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes	12c	3,240$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.15	57	29.8%17 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	4c	3,100$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.91	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	4c	2,532$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.07	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes	4c	2,447$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03a4…3e32backed Yes	5c	2,364$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	3c	2,254$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.06	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	10c	2,251$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.79	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4607…d542backed Yes	12c	2,124$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	79	58.2%46 W · 33 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,947$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.5	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes	7c	1,764$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.48	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes	1c	1,600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	1cpaid	+1,149.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	11c	1,553$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	3c	1,482$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.57	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	8c	1,465$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.52	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	1,174$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	1,166$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.49	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	10c	1,089$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.04	227	31.7%72 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8784…f1aebacked Yes	3c	1,011$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	910.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2386…45f4backed Yes	4c	829.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes	3c	659.45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	10c	621.61$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.7	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	2c	604.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	12c	561.28$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.69	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	3c	559.92$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418b…3a98backed Yes	15c	546$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	164	25.6%42 W · 122 L	-10.6wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb229…8e56backed Yes	5c	508.9$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.57	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes	12c	499.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.4	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes	3c	498$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb17…0ecfbacked Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…2729backed Yes	12c	412.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb135…b9febacked Yes	16c	398$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.4	242	33.5%81 W · 161 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	8c	385.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.46	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…3542backed Yes	13c	357.27$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffc2…74d6backed Yes	10c	345.45$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff93…2072backed Yes	12c	318.87$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9169…e2dabacked Yes	13c	302.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…9794backed Yes	10c	262$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11bf…3f8dbacked Yes	15c	260$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073b…16ecbacked Yes	12c	241.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88d…3db1backed Yes	11c	218.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e0…d024backed Yes	12c	203$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…1ddabacked Yes	8c	195.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	123	39%48 W · 75 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	9c	189.49$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	277	29.2%81 W · 196 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes	5c	184.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	21.2%14 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes	18c	180.52$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	128	47.7%61 W · 67 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Yes	6c	171.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed Yes	21c	166.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…5da3backed Yes	8c	157.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb4…70e6backed Yes	8c	154.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa04f…69ddbacked Yes	12c	154.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe4af…a344backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf847…ee6abacked Yes	12c	152.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	10c	146.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x966a…351ebacked Yes	12c	137.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9746…d36cbacked Yes	10c	133.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d21…7c1fbacked Yes	13c	127.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbabd…cdcebacked Yes	9c	123.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b3…fe59backed Yes	12c	120.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	11c	112$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	18c	102$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	120	36.7%44 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x607d…d2f4backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	74	40.5%30 W · 44 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x891e…c1c9backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	17c	96.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c6…b18cbacked Yes	16c	85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	18c	84.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event