TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0f9d…24b3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+439.4%+$781.39
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.84
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.33
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$300
France vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
France vs. England: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+117.9%+$58.93
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+215%+$214.96
Argentina to score first vs. England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
England vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$46.49
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.41
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.69
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$36.14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$71.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.18
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$75.35
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$84.55
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.52
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+43.6%+$23.99
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$168.65
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+30%+$61.9
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+57%+$11.97
Crimean bridge hit before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$58.61
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+68%+$193.5
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+61.3%+$36.77
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$5.28
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.25
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+37%+$18.49
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+27.4%+$100.63
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$76.35
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+210.5%+$105.26
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$25
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$94.09
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$10.94
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$108.42
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$16.8
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+89.8%+$41.88
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.3
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+79.9%+$15.97
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$225
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+924.3%+$138.65
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+36.6%+$5.13
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+39.3%+$56.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$37.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.