TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No32c16,823$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.557354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes63c8,312$5,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,105.1220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No33c7,672$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.213737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes57c6,082$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.248450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes65c5,236$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes52c5,228$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No32c4,477$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.111838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes55c4,458$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.348632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No32c4,385$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.0537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa588…dad8backed No64c3,964$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+123.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No40c3,796$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.947740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No39c3,715$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.6169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes64c3,257$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.711625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes66c2,998$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.4810127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de2…adcabacked No53c2,987$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x059b…b926backed No35c2,772$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes42c2,172$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2609549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6402147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes58c1,887$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.41338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No33c1,861$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.724858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes71c1,730$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.5715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes74c1,702$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.646955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No30c1,499$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.75742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No43c1,407$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes52c1,395$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.118033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe145…519abacked No40c1,354$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes69c1,350$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No47c1,332$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.687051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes70c1,232$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.073852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes58c1,153$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.534143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes37c1,111$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes65c1,100$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3852065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd93f…1e30backed No37c1,090$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76bd…f258backed No62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked No30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.992412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes63c981.12$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.9410834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No16c888.89$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7717238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes70c823$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.673658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes59c795.41$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.8117633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73de…c4fabacked Yes65c771.42$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5024…3fc7backed Yes65c770$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed No2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes40c724.86$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.688737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No42c713.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5511336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c699.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes80c652.09$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1336858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked No35c639.01$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed No32c635.81$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c619.99$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes62c607.55$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked No35c577.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No43c545.45$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.478331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed No58c513.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c63…dff7backed Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15039522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No40c500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1998127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b34…5ebdbacked Yes67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac26…d2b7backed Yes69c500$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No32c496.98$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes55c461.83$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.821145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes49c450.1$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.358640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed No47c427$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.531323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xed44…e2a9backed Yes69c414.94$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes72c350.41$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.182544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed Yes68c350$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed No38c312.19$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed No34c307.03$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1233655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+65.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933450%17 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x515a…de7fbacked Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…c0f8backed Yes67c298.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed Yes77c292$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.311723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes48c290.4$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.129546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No40c280$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.815924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes63c263.59$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.538433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes69c262.64$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.043935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c260.51$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.151,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes63c250.11$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3113167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32d5…a6dcbacked No48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ed…52d3backed Yes42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes60c224.48$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes52c207.16$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.161060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes69c203.59$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.591080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+158.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d49…da90backed No58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11611031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x124a…1332backed No31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa897…09fabacked Yes67c199.12$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.12580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No35c194$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6614125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4580…abf8backed Yes46c190$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+72.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c187.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfc5a…1ca2backed No54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes73c184.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No34c178.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.