Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Africa before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd044d36e858baef2fc7d809acc0c38109dc8e12a7b519e15ee18c8c5b55b938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 12c | 3,500$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 48c | 2,378$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.09 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 42c | 1,980$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.3 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,768$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.08 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 56c | 1,649$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.1 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 51c | 1,008$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.6 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 61c | 950$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 900$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed No | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 323.1$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 52c | 240$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 65c | 221.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 39c | 220.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…a551backed No | 31c | 86.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 80.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 35.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Africa before June?this page
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Cambodia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Indonesia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Laos before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Pakistan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.